Trader Talk

Source: NYSE photo Art Cashin couldn’t lead the New York Stock Exchange in the singing of “Wait til the Sun Shines Nellie” this year, but he penned this poem for UBS and its clients, and is sharing it with us here.  Happy New Year, Art. Look forward to seeing you on the floor in 2021. Subscribe

Every December for the past 13 years Art Cashin and his “friends of fermentation” have gathered at the front bar at Bobby Van’s Steakhouse across from the NYSE to celebrate the holidays, and we’ve used the opportunity to get Art’s take on the year ahead. We weren’t able to meet at Bobby Van’s this year,

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. NYSE Electric vehicle maker Tesla is poised to enter the S&P 500 in what will be the largest rebalancing in the history of that index. The new index with Tesla in it begins trading on Monday, but all the trading action happens at the

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, stands on the construction site of the Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide near Berlin, September 3, 2020. Patrick Pleul | picture alliance | Getty Images The addition of Tesla into the S&P 500 at the close this Friday will be one of the biggest trading days in history, but it is

New York Stock Exchange building is seen decorated for Christmas at the Financial District in New York City, United States on November 30, 2020. Anadolu Agency | Getty Images IPOs vs. SPACs:  Who will win in 2021?  2020 was a surprisingly good year for IPOs, but it was an even better year for Special Purpose

Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York. NYSE Options trading is the new sports betting. Talk about unintended consequences. The stay-at-home requirement created by Covid-19 has spawned a huge sub-industry in options trading in tandem with an increase in equities trading that shows no signs of letting up.   Trading in equity

CEO of Tesla Motors Elon Musk reacts following the company’s initial public offering at the NASDAQ market in New York June 29, 2010 Brendan McDermid | Reuters S&P’s action on Tesla showed the growing power of indexers and passive investing. S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced that Tesla will be added to the S&P 500

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. NYSE A big year-end rally? Don’t get too excited yet. December is traditionally an up month: Since 1945, the S&P 500 rose nearly 1.5% in all Decembers and advanced in price 73% of the time, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA Research. But hopes for the

Day traders have terrible track records.  Academics who study stock pickers have long observed that the vast majority of professional money managers – about 85% – underperform their benchmarks over a multi-year period. Now those professionals are turning their sights on retail day traders, warning that the same poor results apply to them as well. 

The Wall Street Bull (The Charging Bull) is seen during Covid-19 pandemic in New York, on May 26, 2020. Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Money is pouring into stocks through exchange-traded funds.  You can thank the potential vaccines. Money is pouring in because U.S. investors who have been reluctant to put money

In my 23 years as on-air stocks correspondent for CNBC, I’ve been asked many questions by strangers, but most of them boil down to some variant of “What do you think is going to happen to the markets?”   Remarkably, almost no one (OK, maybe one in a hundred) ever ask what I would consider

An exterior view of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) headquarters in Washington. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters What would a Democrat-controlled Securities and Exchange Commission look like? It’s early, but speculation is already raging on Wall Street.  Who will be the next SEC Commissioner?  Former CFTC chair Gary Gensler, who aggressively implemented Dodd Frank

What’s next for markets? With the election over, some old themes will be re-emerging, regardless of who will be president.  The rally is due to better earnings visibility On one issue, all traders agree: the market rally is largely due to the unlikelihood of higher corporate and individual taxes next year. “The Senate numbers from the

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton is telling corporate America it needs to get much more vigilant on security. In an interview Monday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch,” stressed that significant cybersecurity threats remain, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and election season. “Cyber risks have not gone away with the unfortunate, unforeseen risks we’ve faced with

How is Wall Street positioned for the election? Even Wall Street isn’t sure.  For most of October, “buy the stimulus trade” was the main idea on Wall Street. After all, polls showed odds were good for a Biden victory that would likely entail some kind of large-scale stimulus.  Investors were buying small-cap stocks, infrastructure plays, and

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in lower Manhattan on October 02, 2020 in New York City. Spencer Platt | Getty Images Earnings hopes wilt as fresh Covid outbreak throws 2021 reopening in doubt. That’s the story of earnings season so far.  It’s the one word investors didn’t want to hear: lockdown. Never mind

Dividends and buybacks are bouncing back.  At the end of the first quarter, there was tremendous concern that the levels of dividends and buybacks would be cut dramatically.  There have been cutbacks, but there’s good news amid the bad. The good and bad news on dividends For lovers of dividends, the end of the first quarter

Does it matter for stocks who wins the White House? Is there anything unusual about the candidates this year that could impact the markets, regardless of who wins?  For answers, we turn to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research, who has studied elections and the impact on markets going back to 1900.  This

Is a vaccine the real risk to the market?  Stocks are within 1% to 2% of their historic highs because of the belief that: 1) stimulus of some form is coming, 2) the election will not devolve into chaos, and 3) an effective vaccine will be available in early 2021. Five vaccines — from Moderna,

Would you talk differently if you knew a machine was listening to you and grading you based on what you were saying, or based on whether you were using positive or negative words, or even if the sound of your voice was optimistic or pessimistic? Apparently, Wall Street executives are talking differently. They are trying to

A pedestrian wearing a protective mask exits from the Wall Street subway station in New York, on Monday, July 20, 2020. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images Wall Street is getting bulled up on earnings, and that is highlighting the divide it has with Main Street. Earnings season is two days old, and already

A view of NASDAQ in Times Square during the coronavirus pandemic on May 7, 2020 in New York City. Noam Galai | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images In the ETF space, success begets success. Just look at what Invesco is doing today. They’re launching a new product, the NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ).

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in lower Manhattan on October 5, 2020 in New York City. Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images Stock market bulls, rejoice.  Third quarter earnings season begins Tuesday with JPMorgan Chase.  The good news: in the second quarter, companies delivered surprisingly large earnings beats as analysts underestimated

Some are calling it “a la carte stimulus,” with aid for airlines in column A, PPP aid in Column B, etc.  Whatever it is,  hopes for stimulus — pre-election, post-election, comprehensive package, stand-alone deal, whatever and whenever — is supporting breakouts in cyclicals like industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, and banks. Many big names like Caterpillar,

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speak to reporters after their coronavirus relief negotiations with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S. August 7, 2020. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters The trading community is actively debating the

A pedestrian outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, July 29, 2020. Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images The October market story is really complicated. If you thought September was confusing, October is not likely to be any better, and it could be significantly rockier. That’s because the “buckets” that

Earnings season kicks off in a couple weeks and here’s why it may be better than expected. The S&P 500 is down 4% for the month, the first down month since March, but investors are expecting big things from corporate earnings reports, which begin Oct. 13 when JPMorgan releases results. “September has been a rough

A computer-generated image from interiors contractor Portview shows how office space may be segregated as people go back to the workplace after the coronavirus lockdowns are eased. Portview What will the post-Covid workplace look like? Steelcase is one of the largest manufacturers of office furniture — desks, chairs, storage products and office pods — and

A trader working after the Nasdaq opening bell ceremony on April 18, 2019 in New York City. Kena Betancur | Getty Images Stock picking has a terrible track record, and it’s getting worse. That’s the thesis of Larry Swedroe and Andrew Berkin’s book, “The Incredible Shrinking Alpha,” just out in its second edition. Swedroe is

Snowflake IPO begins trading at the NYSE on Sept. 16th, 2020. Source: NYSE So you think Snowflake up over 100% on its first day is a big deal? Nah, there’s been plenty of companies that have had first day pops bigger than that this year.  They include biotech firm CureVac, up 249% on the first