Cramer: ‘Black Swan’ of Trump refusing to leave White House looks less likely, reassuring markets

Investing

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Friday that investors should feel more confident that an orderly transition of power from President Donald Trump to President-elect Joe Biden should occur — suggesting a “Black Swan” event that Trump refuses to leave the White House, despite losing a democratic election, appears unlikely.

Cramer pointed to a number of developments that took place Thursday, including Biden’s projected victory in Arizona, according to NBC News, and an authoritative statement on election integrity released by a group of government agencies.

“I think that we’ve got a situation where, maybe, there’s a little more certainty,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street,” as stocks rose Friday morning during a volatile week of trading. “The idea that the president would vacate the White House is going to make it so that we feel that there won’t be something that is such a wild card that we can’t even bear to think about.”

Trump has refused to concede the election race to Biden, despite media organizations, including NBC News, projecting the Democratic former vice president as the winner. Trump’s campaign has filed numerous lawsuits in states, such as Pennsylvania, related to the voting process or vote counting.

Trump has falsely claimed he actually won the race, suggesting his projected loss is due to “illegal votes.” And on Thursday, he tweeted about a right-wing conspiracy theory that alleges millions of ballots cast for him had been deleted and hundreds of thousands were switched from Trump to Biden.

Following Trump’s baseless allegations, a coalition of government security agencies put out a declarative statement later Thursday that said, in bold text: “There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.”

“While we know there are many unfounded claims and opportunities for misinformation about the process of our elections, we can assure you we have the utmost confidence in the security and integrity of our elections, and you should too,” read the statement from the Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council. “When you have questions, turn to elections officials as trusted voices as they administer elections.”

Trump responded in a tweet Friday, with the tagline, Rigged Election!” Twitter labeled it as disputed.

Cramer said the government statement indicated despite Trump’s claims about the election being compromised, “there is a security apparatus that has spoken up.”

“I think that took the ‘Black Swan’ off the table,” the “Mad Money” host said, a reference to so-called “Black Swan” events, which are highly improbable but can have severe consequences if they do happen.

Cramer also said he believes Trump’s tweet on Thursday about a decline in ratings for Fox News were indication that Trump’s mind may be focused on a post-presidency endeavor. Axios recently reported that Trump was considering launching a digital media company to rival the conservative cable network.

Taken collectively, Cramer said these three developments around a peaceful, democratic transition of power should be viewed positively by investors. Instead of worrying about presidential uncertainty, Cramer said Wall Street is able to focus on the U.S. coronavirus outbreak and corporate earnings. “The idea of vacating the White House is becoming increasingly on the table,” he said.

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